Where was the psychological noon filmed

Has Markus Söder's calculation now worked out? Did two institutes this Friday - Infratest Dimap and the Wahlen research group - deliver exactly what he had speculated on? Both attest that he is far more popular than Armin Laschet; There are only differences in the extent of the downgrading. At Infratest Dimap, Söder leads with 44 to 15 percent; at the research group Wahlen, 63 percent answer the question of who they consider fit for chancellor: Söder. Laschet comes to 29 percent.

So the latter is in some need. Will he again cite the fact that he won the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in 2017 despite initially poor numbers? Söder said a few days ago that surveys are not everything, but a clear yardstick - words that he should now consider an understatement this Friday. In any case, the mood that he and his supporters relied on is there. And what do you do with it in the Union?

Polls are created with the tools of the electoral researcher and can be used to rationalize politics. A party that only focuses on the core of its supporters will not get very far. It is therefore useful to consult polls if you do not want to make an offer to voters for which there is little demand. (At the same time, if you only follow surveys, you will follow this mood today and that tomorrow; good luck with that.)

The Union is currently hacking and stinging with numbers

In the case of the Union, however, the polling discussion these days serves less for enlightenment and more for struggle. It has to solve an urgent problem, with the help of survey arguments to compensate for what had been neglected in the months before: CDU and CSU have no orderly procedure for the K question, hence this slapping and stabbing with numbers. They are now apparently clear - but with the emphasis on seemingly. Because the demoscopes have provided further information. In addition to the 44 percent Söder and 15 percent Laschet supporters at Infratest, there are 33 percent more. You don't think either of them is suitable.

And what is characteristic of the debate is anyway the aspect under which it has been conducted for a long time: not which of the two aspirants would be better, but who would be less bad. In an attempt to be loyal, Friedrich Merz said two things: first, that Laschet was not the favorite in the polls, and second, that the CDU would dismantle the second person in a row at its head if he was not nominated. Should the latter be a criterion that will impress even one voter in the autumn?

What Reiner Haseloff says is basically amazing

The weakest (and very regular) argument in polling debates is that polls are always snapshots. First of all, yeah, what else? Second, at some point a decision has to be made. Demoscopes interview people who - unlike themselves, politicians or journalists - only deal with politics incidentally and who therefore make a lot of trade-offs on the basis of feeling rather than knowledge. Laschet has reservations, among other things, because even in this serious time he exudes Rhenish indifference; Söder is also rejected because he - although Franke - radiates the brutal CSU Upper Bavarian. The most legendary argument in favor of Söder comes from Reiner Haseloff, the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt. It is now not about character traits, but only about popularity, he said. Really? It would be good if poll numbers aren't the only values ​​that mean something to a Union politician.

What CDU and CSU could help: that Olaf Scholz from the SPD is not getting caught either. And that whoever the Greens nominate on Monday will still have plenty of opportunities to be skeptical. It should only be over with the 35 or 37 percent in the polls. This came about because people still equated Merkel with the CDU / CSU; it wasn't really clear to them that it would actually stop. Should now be known to everyone.