Marks the damn Howard stern spot
> We will have to revisit the deflationary quagmire one last time before the Fed and fellow central banks go for full-throttle reflation as the lesser of policy evils. "- bto: and all of this for a good cause, the fight against climate change .>
In my opinion, the energy turnaround is the ONLY approach with which GROWING demand in the real economy can be generated and therefore the only REASON for ASSUMING inflation - if we disregard hyperinflation based on a loss of confidence in the currency.
The energy turnaround is not only a BUILDING-UP of new physical capital, but also the DEVALUATION of old ones.
This is at least associated with great friction, which does NOT promote demand, and also with the LOSS of jobs, which has a DEFLATIONARY effect.
Of course, an attempt will be made to compensate for this with money - it is UNLIMITED available via MMT.
As a consequence, this can lead to a loss of confidence in the currency and to hyperinflation.
Therefore, the following development is not only conceivable, but also to be included in the considerations as an entirely possible scenario:
1. Still a DEFLATIONARY development
2. IN this situation a worsening CONFLICT between INVESTMENT in renewable energies and their application and REDUCTION of jobs.
This paradox - RISING investment AND at the same time RISING unemployment - is due to what I call a large-scale experiment WITHOUT a test arrangement and can ONLY be kept under control through MONEY ALLOCATIONS to private economic entities, i.e. households and companies - if EVER, i. H. there was no termination due to political disruption.
3. The ongoing, growing flood of money, which is also promoted by the DEMOGRAPHIC development (increasing grants to the GRV, care etc.) and growing TRANSFERS to the EU can - CAN, must NOT - lead to ultimately trust in the currency is lost and developed inflation gets out of hand.
This scenario is not out of thin air, the energy transition is already being carried out.
In this respect:
It is a scenario based on real economic measures and the related monetary effects and thus a RESISTANT one, i. H. Inflation scenario to be measured and checked empirically.
However, it is UNCERTAIN whether the development will take place this way.
Forecasts are therefore not appropriate.
That's the way it is - ALWAYS so when it comes to the future - the inflation scenario can, however, unlike projections such as “we've had it before, we'll get it again”, claim CREDIBILITY.reply
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